The Xi Enigma: Why Trump’s Personal Diplomacy Falls Flat

President Donald Trump’s attempts to build a personal rapport with Chinese President Xi Jinping have yielded few tangible results, despite his claims that he has a unique understanding of the Chinese leader. This mismatch between Trump’s expectations and Xi’s reality raises questions about what it means when the most powerful man in the world is blindsided by one of his closest international counterparts.

The answer lies in the fundamental differences between the two leaders’ approaches to power and diplomacy. Xi Jinping has built his reputation on being a master strategist, carefully building momentum before striking at key moments. His focus is on cultivating a sense of control, not sentimental relationships or personal charm.

Xi’s approach was evident in his rise to power, where he skillfully positioned himself as the steady hand needed to revive China’s economy and stabilize its politics. Once in charge, however, he launched a ruthless campaign against party elites who had helped him ascend, sending a clear message that loyalty is paramount and personal connections are fleeting.

In contrast, Trump has always operated from an intuitive place. He approaches diplomacy like a high-stakes gambler, betting big on his ability to connect with world leaders through charm and personality. However, this approach doesn’t work with Xi Jinping, who views diplomacy as a carefully scripted game of cat-and-mouse.

Their first meeting at Mar-a-Lago in 2017 was telling. Trump tried to build rapport over chocolate cake, but Xi was already calculating his next move, studying the American president’s tactics and preparing for the day when he would strike back. And strike back he did, with devastating effect. The “Liberation Day” tariffs that Trump rolled out were meant to be a bold move, but they ended up being a bluff. Xi surprised him by retaliating rather than conciliating, leaving Trump forced to fold.

This pattern has repeated itself over the years, with Xi consistently staying one step ahead of his American counterpart. One reason for this is that Xi’s leadership style is fundamentally different from Putin’s in Russia. While Putin values loyalty above all else and takes risks on the international stage, Xi is calculating and ruthless when it comes to maintaining power.

The case of General Zhang Youxia illustrates this point perfectly. Despite a decades-long friendship between the two men, Xi showed zero sentimentality when he decided to replace him as head of China’s military. This is not just a personal trait; it’s a hallmark of Xi’s leadership style, which prioritizes control and loyalty above all else.

Trump’s attempts to build a personal relationship with Xi have been a series of missed cues and misread signals. Despite his boasts about having a deep understanding of the Chinese leader, he has consistently underestimated Xi’s strategic thinking and overestimated his own ability to charm him into submission.

A more nuanced understanding of Xi’s leadership style is needed for American foreign policy. Rather than relying on charm and personality, we need to develop a deeper understanding of Xi’s strategic thinking and the ways in which he seeks to expand China’s influence around the world. The stakes are high, but one thing is clear: Trump’s personal diplomacy has failed. It’s time for a new approach – one that acknowledges the realities of Xi Jinping’s leadership style and seeks to outmaneuver him at his own game.