The Gray Zone: When Does Russia’s Hybrid Warfare Become War?

The German government’s decision to hold Russia responsible for an attempted attack on Leipzig Airport has sparked a heated debate about what constitutes war in the modern era. Some argue that Germany is not at war with Russia, while others claim that the country is already embroiled in a hybrid conflict.

High-profile incidents of Russian aggression have raised questions about the nature of modern warfare. The attempted attack on Leipzig Airport was just one example of such incidents. However, declaring war is a complex process regulated by law in Western countries. In Germany, the Bundestag must explicitly declare that the country is at war before invoking collective defense obligations under Article 5 of the NATO Treaty.

No such declaration has been made, and consultations among NATO members have not yet taken place. Critics argue that this approach fails to address Russia’s hybrid actions, which blur the lines between war and peace. These activities include attacks on infrastructure, cyberattacks, disinformation, and traditional espionage.

Security expert Sönke Marahrens believes that Russia is using these tactics to advance its strategic interests in Germany. As a key supporter of Ukraine, Germany plays a crucial role in countering Russian aggression. If the attack on Leipzig Airport had succeeded, it would have relieved pressure on the Russian front and given them a significant advantage in their war against Ukraine.

Germany’s response has been criticized for being too mild. Chancellor Friedrich Merz has promised to make perpetrators “pay a price,” but so far, this has only translated into limited measures such as closing down the Russian House cultural institute in Berlin and tightening entry requirements for Russian citizens.

This approach fails to address the root causes of Russia’s aggression. By not naming Russia explicitly and taking more robust action against its activities, Germany risks being seen as weak and ineffective. This could embolden Putin further, leading to even more aggressive behavior in the future.

Russia’s actions are part of a broader pattern of escalation by authoritarian regimes around the world. As democratic institutions come under increasing pressure, these regimes see an opportunity to advance their interests through aggression and disinformation.

The question is what this means for Germany. Can it continue to rely on traditional alliances with other Western countries to protect itself from Russian aggression? Or does it need to take more assertive action to defend its interests?

In a world where hybrid warfare and disinformation are increasingly common, governments must rethink their approach to security and defense. This requires investing in cyberdefenses, improving critical infrastructure, and developing effective counter-disinformation campaigns.

Governments also need to be willing to take tough decisions, even if they are unpopular with some segments of the population. As Green Party lawmaker Sara Nanni said, “We need to stop the flow of money to the Russian war machine” – but this will require more than just closing down a few cultural institutes and tightening entry requirements.

Ultimately, the question of when Russia’s hybrid warfare becomes an open act of aggression is not just about Germany or Ukraine – it’s about the future of democracy itself. As we navigate the gray zone between war and peace, one thing is certain: the stakes are higher than ever before.

The recent incident in Leipzig serves as a stark reminder that the old certainties no longer apply. The need for governments to rethink their approach to security and defense has never been more pressing.