The High-NA EUV Conundrum: Can Intel Turn Manufacturing Progress into Profits?

The recent announcement from Intel Corporation (NASDAQ:INTC) and ASML Holding N.V. (NASDAQ:ASML) that they have processed over one million wafers using High-NA EUV technology is a significant milestone in advanced chip manufacturing development. However, this breakthrough raises more questions than answers about the economics of High-NA EUV adoption.

Intel faces a key challenge: turning its manufacturing progress into external foundry business. Despite processing over one million wafers, Intel’s foundry revenue still lags behind expectations. The company’s recent Q2 2026 report revealed a significant operating loss in its foundry business, despite a 31% increase in revenue year-over-year. This highlights the need for Intel to prove it can turn manufacturing capabilities into profitable external foundry business.

The problem is not unique to Intel; many companies struggle to transition technological advancements into commercial success. A look at technology adoption history reveals a pattern: early adopters often face significant challenges scaling up production and turning a profit. Intel’s current predicament serves as a reminder that even with technical breakthroughs, economics can be a major hurdle.

The collaboration between Intel and ASML is crucial to addressing this challenge. By working together, they aim to bring the lithography ecosystem around larger-format masks to support future High-NA EUV scaling. This partnership demonstrates industry-wide cooperation’s potential in driving technological advancements and commercial adoption.

ASML’s recent collaboration with Intel helps validate its most advanced High-NA EUV machinery in active commercial production, supporting broader industry adoption. However, ASML faces a limit on how big of a chip it can print due to the use of smaller masks. The company plans to show a pilot line with larger masks by 2031 and have the new technology ready for high-volume production by 2033.

Intel’s test lies in turning manufacturing progress into external foundry business, while ASML’s challenge is convincing customers to adopt High-NA EUV on a large scale. TSMC’s recent decision to introduce High-NA into manufacturing from 2030 suggests that even though customers may be technically validating this technology, they are taking their time for commercial adoption.

The latest milestone from Intel-ASML strengthens the case that High-NA EUV is moving beyond experimentation into practical chip manufacturing. However, it remains to be seen how much of this progress translates into broader demand and increased profits for ASML investors. The economics of High-NA EUV adoption will continue to be a major challenge for both Intel and ASML in the coming years.

The recent surge in hedge fund holdings for both companies suggests that institutional investors are taking note of their advancements. However, this support should not distract from the fundamental challenges facing these companies. The success of High-NA EUV technology ultimately depends on its ability to drive commercial adoption and profitability rather than just technical validation.

As we look ahead to 2030 and beyond, it will be interesting to see how Intel and ASML address the challenges of scaling up production and turning a profit with their advanced lithography tools. The stakes are high, but one thing is certain: the future of chip manufacturing hangs in the balance, and only time will tell if High-NA EUV can overcome its economic hurdles.

The industry’s reliance on complex technological advancements often leads to a focus on the next breakthrough rather than the underlying economics. It is essential for companies like Intel and ASML to acknowledge the challenges they face and work towards finding solutions that balance technical progress with commercial viability. The future of chip manufacturing depends on it, as these companies navigate the complexities of scaling up production while ensuring profitability.