Can Andy Burnham Beat Reform?
· marketing
Can Andy Burnham Actually Beat Reform to Take on Starmer? Here’s What the Data Shows
The news that Andy Burnham is challenging Sir Keir Starmer for the Labour leadership has sent shockwaves through the party. With his intention to stand in the upcoming by-election for Makerfield, Burnham seeks to build momentum for a leadership bid that could potentially upend current power dynamics within Labour. However, as he navigates this terrain, one question looms large: can a politician as popular as Burnham overcome structural obstacles to reach Westminster?
Labour’s National Executive Committee has indicated that members will not block Burnham’s path to the by-election, but winning the seat against Nigel Farage’s Reform UK remains an uphill battle. Makerfield, once a Labour stronghold since 1983, has seen a worrying trend: Labour’s support has collapsed, while Reform’s has surged. In this month’s local elections, Farage’s party won every council ward in the constituency, securing around half the vote.
Burnham’s popularity, recorded as 35 per cent by pollsters YouGov, might suggest he can carry his way to victory. However, Sir Keir Starmer’s popularity sits at 19 per cent and Wes Streeting’s at just 12. Yet, popularity alone is not enough; Burnham faces an electorate that may view his leadership bid as a self-serving move.
The rise of the Green Party in recent local elections poses another significant challenge for Burnham. The party has begun searching for a candidate in Makerfield, potentially splitting the progressive vote and handing Reform UK an even greater chance of victory. This development raises questions about Burnham’s ability to galvanize support among Labour voters, who may be hesitant to back him given his apparent ambition.
The cost of a by-election in Makerfield alone could be as much as £226,000, with the added complexity of another potential by-election for the Greater Manchester mayoralty. The 2024 mayoral race already cost taxpayers £4.7 million, and this prospect must weigh heavily on Burnham’s mind.
Sir John Curtice has asserted that Labour would have a “less than 5 per cent chance” in the Makerfield by-election if it were anyone other than Andy Burnham. This raises pointed questions about the party’s strategy and its leaders’ willingness to listen. While Burnham has significant public support, the party’s structural obstacles must be addressed if Labour is to avoid a disastrous defeat.
As the months leading up to the contest unfold, one thing is certain: the fate of Makerfield will have far-reaching implications for the Labour Party as a whole. The question on everyone’s lips remains: can a politician as popular as Burnham overcome the structural obstacles that stand between him and Westminster? Or will this moment prove too great an opportunity for his party to seize, lost in a maelstrom of self-interest and electoral complacency?
Reader Views
- MDMateo D. · small-business owner
While Andy Burnham's popularity might give him an initial boost in Makerfield, we shouldn't forget that he's up against a uniquely entrenched opponent in Nigel Farage. Reform UK's recent successes are less about shifting public opinion and more about exploiting Labour's internal weaknesses. To truly gauge Burnham's prospects, we need to look at the party's local campaign machinery: is it capable of reversing the trend of declining voter loyalty and energizing the ground game?
- TSThe Stage Desk · editorial
Burnham's challenge to Starmer raises questions about Labour's priorities: is this a legitimate bid for reform or simply a power play? The party needs to ask itself if backing Burnham would be a gamble worth taking, given the risks of alienating its own members and voters. Meanwhile, Reform UK's strength in Makerfield should not be underestimated; their success there could be the start of something bigger, making it harder for Labour to recover even with Burnham at the helm.
- ABAriana B. · marketing consultant
One aspect that's been glossed over is the elephant in the room: Burnham's lack of a clear policy agenda to differentiate himself from Starmer and his own record as Mayor of Greater Manchester. Without a compelling vision for Labour's future, he risks being seen as little more than a disruptor, playing on personal popularity rather than ideological conviction. His team will need to swiftly articulate what sets him apart from the incumbent, lest Burnham's momentum stalls against Farage's well-oiled machine in Makerfield.