LNP Rules Out One Nation Coalition in Queensland
· marketing
LNP’s Coalition Calculus: A Risky Gamble in Queensland Politics
Deputy Premier Jarrod Bleijie’s statement ruling out a preference deal or coalition with One Nation has sent shockwaves through the Queensland political landscape. On its surface, this decision seems like a no-brainer – why would the Liberal National Party (LNP) want to associate itself with Pauline Hanson’s populist movement? However, scratch beneath the surface and you’ll find a complex web of arithmetic, electoral politics, and historical context that makes Bleijie’s stance both reassuring and puzzling.
Bleijie’s blunt dismissal of the coalition option comes at a time when Labor is attempting to tie the state government to Hanson and Gina Rinehart. This effort aims to create an image of the LNP as desperate and beholden to far-right interests. While this strategy might play well with some segments of the electorate, it’s unclear whether it’ll have any real impact on voters who are increasingly disillusioned with mainstream politics.
Recent polling suggests that One Nation could attract up to 20 percent of the primary vote, a figure that would put them just five percentage points behind Labor. This raises questions about the electoral arithmetic and whether the LNP is willing to take risks to secure power. Bleijie believes the LNP has a good shot at expanding its majority in 2028.
One Nation’s lack of representation in the Queensland parliament and absence of state leadership might make it seem like an unlikely partner for the LNP. However, Hanson’s party has a proven track record of influencing election outcomes through strategic preference deals. This could mean that even if Bleijie rules out a coalition or preference deal, the LNP might still be beholden to One Nation’s support in key seats.
At the recent Labor conference in Brisbane, senior leaders attempted to paint the Crisafulli government as obsessed with politics and desperate to look normal. By framing the LNP’s relationship with One Nation as an “unholy alliance,” they’re attempting to tap into growing concerns about the rise of far-right politics in Australia. This rhetoric is reminiscent of past attempts by Labor to position itself as a bulwark against extreme ideologies.
Bleijie’s response suggests that he’s not buying what Labor is selling. His confidence that the LNP can expand its majority in 2028 might be rooted in a deeper understanding of Queensland politics and the electoral landscape. By ruling out a coalition or preference deal with One Nation, Bleijie may be signaling to voters that the LNP is committed to maintaining its independence and avoiding association with far-right ideologies.
This decision raises more questions than it answers. Will the LNP’s calculus change in the lead-up to 2028? Can they really afford to dismiss the potential benefits of a strategic partnership with One Nation? As Queensland politics becomes increasingly polarized, voters will be watching closely to see how these parties navigate their relationships and the implications for the state’s future.
Reader Views
- MDMateo D. · small-business owner
Bleijie's decision to rule out a One Nation coalition might just be a clever ploy to keep his party's options open. By publicly rejecting Hanson's offer, the LNP can now quietly negotiate a backroom deal if needed. The key is in the maths – with One Nation's potential 20 percent of the primary vote, the LNP may not need to take the coalition risk at all. In fact, Bleijie might be counting on Labor getting spooked by One Nation's influence and making concessions of their own, giving the LNP a clear path to victory in 2028.
- ABAriana B. · marketing consultant
The LNP's decision to rule out a coalition with One Nation is a calculated risk that might pay off in the short term but ultimately backfire if they're unable to win over disillusioned voters who don't identify as far-right. What's missing from this analysis is a discussion of the LNP's internal dynamics and whether Bleijie's stance will placate the party's conservative wing, which has historically been aligned with One Nation's agenda. If the LNP can't convince these voters to stick with them, they risk hemorrhaging support to minor parties that will only strengthen Labor's hand in 2028.
- TSThe Stage Desk · editorial
Bleijie's stance against a One Nation coalition might be seen as a principled move, but let's not forget that it's also a calculated risk. By rejecting the populist party outright, the LNP is essentially playing a game of electoral roulette - they're betting that their voters won't abandon them for a more radical alternative. But what if the maths don't add up? If One Nation holds sway in key seats, will the LNP be forced to negotiate with Hanson behind closed doors regardless of Bleijie's public stance? The risks of this approach are real - and so is the potential reward for Labor if they can successfully paint the LNP as out of touch with mainstream Queenslanders.