Al Qaeda’s Persistent Threat: A Reality Check for Washington

The devastating 9/11 attacks marked a turning point in modern history, but as the world marks 25 years since that fateful day, it is striking to see how much attention has shifted from the original terrorist mastermind behind those attacks – Osama bin Laden and his global jihadist network, al Qaeda. The organization that once unified disparate extremist groups under a banner of global jihad has evolved into a decentralized force with regional branches and affiliates.

Its actions continue to wreak havoc on various parts of the world, from the Sahel region in Africa to Afghanistan, where its influence remains strong. But what’s equally striking is Washington’s apparent dismissal of this threat. In its recent US Counter-terrorism Strategy, al Qaeda is relegated to second place behind transnational cartels and criminal gangs, which have been newly designated as foreign terrorist organizations.

Al Qaeda’s decentralization has enabled it to adapt to changing circumstances, a fact highlighted by Bruce Hoffman, a counterterrorism expert at the Council on Foreign Relations. Regional outfits like JNIM in the Sahel region, which stretches across Western and north-central Africa, are particularly active. They have taken advantage of the withdrawal of French and other international troops from the area, creating a power vacuum that has allowed them to establish a lasting presence throughout the region.

Similarly, al Shabaab in Somalia continues to control vast swaths of territory, undoing years of efforts to stabilize the war-torn country. Colin Smith, the UN coordinator responsible for monitoring sanctions regimes targeting al Qaeda and its affiliates, noted at a recent roundtable discussion that “this demonstrates just how global the organisation is.” The ability of al Qaeda’s branches to plan and think on a global scale remains a pressing concern.

The downgrading of the threat from jihadist organizations might be attributed in part to the changing priorities of the US administration. When the White House unveiled its US Counter-terrorism Strategy earlier this year, many experts were surprised to see that transnational cartels and criminal gangs topped the list of terror threats. This shift in focus has led to a reallocation of resources and personnel within the counterterrorism community.

However, experts like Colin P. Clarke and Clara Broekaert, executive director and researcher respectively at the Soufan Centre, argue that this narrative does not match the reality on the ground. In their study on the future of global jihadism, they noted that “it would appear that the story that began with the attacks has largely concluded and that jihadism no longer presents an urgent and lethal threat to the West.” But the numbers tell a different tale.

The recent withdrawal of French and other international troops from the Sahel region has indeed paved the way for a lasting presence of jihadist groups in the area. The ransom paid by Western governments to free hostages seized by JNIM in Mali demonstrates just how interconnected these groups are, with channels flowing directly into the senior leadership of al Qaeda.

As we reflect on 25 years since 9/11, it’s clear that Washington needs to re-evaluate its priorities and address this persistent threat head-on. The evolution of al Qaeda’s strategy may have made it more difficult to track, but it has not diminished its ability to wreak havoc on global stability.